- Date and Time: 05.10.2024, 21:00 GMT+1
- Venue: Santiago Bernabéu, Madrid, Spain
| Odds via 22bet | |
| Real Madrid vs Villarreal | October 5, 21:00 GMT+1 |
| Real Madrid odds | 1.25 |
| Villarreal odds | 9.8 |
| Draw | 6.55 |
| Over\Under | Total 2,5: 1.27/3.15 |
Real Madrid vs Villarreal Preview
Real Madrid
Until now, three teams have avoided losing to Real Madrid in 1-1 draws: Mallorca, Las Palmas and Atlético de Madrid.
Carlo Ancelotti’s team has not suffered a defeat since the start of the 2024/25 season, but a shocking 1-0 defeat against LOSC in the Champions League became the first loss.
This only comes four days after an intense Madrid Derby, in which football became secondary. Atlético de Madrid Ultras have been sanctioned by the RFEF for throwing objects at Real Madrid’s goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois, forcing the game to be temporarily halted.
Critics blamed Carlo Ancelotti for the lack of a viable defensive system, which was seen against Lille and Atlético. The lack of concentration in the defence has cost the teams two wins, as Jonathan David scored from the penalty spot for LOSC in the last minutes of the first half, while Atlético de Madrid equalised through Ángel Correa in the final minutes as well.
| Recent Form | WWWDL |
| Key Player to Watch | Jude Bellingham |
| Team Strengths | Talented superstars in the attack, fast-paced transitions, strong athletic players |
| Team Weaknesses | Lack of chemistry between players, Ferland Mendy, midfield unable to control games, lack of replacement for Toni Kroos |
| Key injuries and suspensions. | David Alaba, Brahim Díaz, Dani Ceballos, Thibaut Courtois, Éder Militão (doubtful) |
Villarreal
Villarreal’s season mirrors Real Madrid’s in several ways, particularly in the timing of their first defeat – a 5-1 thrashing by FC Barcelona. Despite that setback, Villarreal seems back on track, securing a 2-1 win over Espanyol and a 3-1 victory against relegation-threatened Las Palmas.
Unlike Real Madrid, Marcelino’s team does not play in the Champions League which means that the Yellow Submarine will arrive fresher for their encounter. The only notable injury concern is Juan Foyth, whose return is eagerly anticipated.
Back to work with a new objective on Saturday 🎯 pic.twitter.com/SswJnyueax
— Villarreal CF English (@VillarrealCFen) October 2, 2024
Villarreal is known for lacking the defensive tools to fight against bigger clubs, but they never make life easy for them despite that handicap. The games often end in chaotic scorelines, which aligns with our expectations for this upcoming clash.
One of Villarreal’s standout performers, Alex Baena, is in the form of his life. After scoring off the bench against Las Palmas and assisting both goals against Espanyol, Baena is expected to be a key figure for Marcelino’s side.
Baena’s ongoing rivalry with Real Madrid’s Federico Valverde – stemming from an infamous on-field altercation – adds an extra layer of intensity to the match.
| Recent Form | DWLWW |
| Key Player to Watch | Alejandro Baena |
| Team Strengths | Quality forwards with excellent technique, great depth, solid mid-block, solid transitions in counter-attacks |
| Team Weaknesses | Lack of individual quality in the backline |
| Key injuries and suspensions. | Juan Foyth |
Real Madrid vs Villarreal Head-to-Head Statistics
The two teams faced each other 47 times. Twenty-four of those ended in a Real Madrid victory, while Villarreal only won six times; on 17 occasions, the encounter ended in a draw.
The most recent match ended in a 4-4 draw, marked by Sorloth saving the game by scoring four goals. The Yellow Submarine’s last victory was in 2023, as Villarreal won 3-2 with goals from Samuel Chukwueze and José Luis Morales.
Real Madrid VS Villarreal Player Focus
There are plenty of choices possible for these encounters, but the most striking remains Alejandro Baena. His creativity and playmaking abilities have been exceptional since the start of the season, while his goal output and assists make him one of the most threatening forwards in La Liga.
Alejandro Baena is the Spanish Bruno Fernandes. Creative machine #10 with fantastic passing range, consistency in his playmaking, set piece taking, off-tb movement, temperament/commitment to always give his best, never misses a game. Similar physical limitations too. Top talent. pic.twitter.com/vcTHNm7miB
— Daniel (@danieIscouting) September 26, 2024
Baena’s partnership with new recruit Ayoze Pérez only amplifies this threat. Ayoze has proven himself to be highly efficient in front of goal, and the combination of these two players could pose serious problems for Real Madrid’s defense. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him hit the net against Real Madrid.
On the other side of the pitch, the most obvious pick is none other than Jude Bellingham. His presence was greatly missed at the beginning of the season, exacerbating the consequences of Toni Kroos’ retirement.
Real Madrid needed someone to accompany Valverde in setting the tempo of the team: that man is Jude Bellingham, the player who connects the midfield with the attack.
👔 @MrAncelotti: “It wasn’t a good night, we have to improve and that’s all.”#UCL pic.twitter.com/PHzDkMSiFU
— Real Madrid C.F. 🇬🇧🇺🇸 (@realmadriden) October 2, 2024
Given Villarreal’s vulnerabilities in their central defense, Bellingham’s late runs into the box and ability to orchestrate attacks will be a significant concern for Marcelino’s side.
Real Madrid vs Villarreal Analysis
This match will be anything but a defensively stable match. Goals will be a given, as Ayoze and Baena will look to combine between Real Madrid’s defensive lines, while Vinicius, Bellingham and Valverde will target Villarreal’s rest defence.
Previous clashes show that this match-up often tends to produce plenty of goals, as neither of the two will be interested in defending well.
🗣️ @Frangarcia_11 : “On Saturday, we have another important match and we have to win it.”#UCL pic.twitter.com/XjQhezkoFT
— Real Madrid C.F. 🇬🇧🇺🇸 (@realmadriden) October 2, 2024
Still, Dani Carvajal’s continued great performances are likely to overwhelm Villarreal. A possible consequence would be to see Villarreal pressured in their own half, giving Carlo Ancelotti the strategic advantage.
Real Madrid vs Villarreal Prediction
- Football pick: Real Madrid to win
- Odds: 1.25 (22Bet)
- Score prediction: Real Madrid 3-2 Villarreal
This match won’t be a walk in the park, but the home advantage will have its importance. It’s unlikely to see Villarreal storm through transitions as if they were playing at home.
In scenarios where both team’s attack, the more courageous teams tend to win as each mistake turns out to provide scoring opportunities for the opponents.
He doesn’t only assist…
⚽️ @alexbbaena ⚽️#VillarrealLasPalmas | #LaLigaHighlights
— Villarreal CF English (@VillarrealCFen) October 1, 2024
This could already be witnessed in the match against Barcelona, where Eric Bailly was responsible for multiple mistakes during their 5-1 defeat.
Furthermore, the absence of Juan Foyth prolongs the lack of a defensive full-back on the wings, which makes it likelier for Vinicius Jr to enter the penalty box.
Real Madrid vs Villarreal Betting Tip
- Football Pick: Alejandro Baena to score
- Odds: 6.5 (22Bet)
While Vinicius Jr. is always a tempting option for a betting focus, attention should shift to Alejandro Baena. The Spanish playmaker is currently in top form, having been one of Villarreal’s key attacking threats for more than a year.
Considering that he has been involved in many goals and assists, he should be a worry for Real Madrid.
It is also worth mentioning that Alejandro Baena will face Ferland Mendy, who has been criticised by Real Madrid fans for lacking fundamentals when defending positional attacks (such as 2v3 situations).
Backing Baena to score could be a solid option, especially in a match expected to see plenty of action.
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