Dockworkers in the United States East Coast and Gulf Coast entered the third day of their strike as reports emerged of localized toilet paper shortages across the U.S.
But experts say any lack of supplies on shelves has little to do with the strike itself, and more to do with consumer behaviour.
Ronalds Gonzalez, a supply chain expert from North Carolina State University, told Global News that the perceived shortages have nothing to do with the port strike.
“It is not happening because of the port strike. It is happening because of consumer behaviour,” Gonzales said, adding that most of the toilet paper sold in the U.S. and Canada is produced domestically.
He added, “People should relax. They should buy what they are usually buying. If you are buying one more case of tissue paper (than what you need), then you will cause a problem.”
U.S. President Joe Biden said on Thursday he believed progress was being made in a port labour contract dispute, as dockworkers entered their third day of a strike along the East Coast and Gulf Coast.
The strike, the biggest of its kind in nearly half a century, has blocked unloading of container ships from Maine to Texas, threatening shortages of everything from bananas to auto parts, and triggering a backlog of ships anchored up outside major ports.
As the strike continues, social media platforms saw some users post about shelves in their local supermarkets out of toilet paper, reviving memories of the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic when widespread supply chain crunches and hoarding hit store shelves.
“They cleaned out the toilet paper at my local Walmart in Virginia. Toilet paper hoarding 2.0!” one user posted on the social media platform X.
Reports emerged of similar shortages at Costco stores in other parts of the United States.
Dan North, senior economist with the insurance group Allianz Trade Americas, said in an email, “This is purely panic buying. Almost all toilet paper, (99% according to some estimates) is produced here in the U.S. and is unaffected by the strike. It’s a bitter throwback to the COVID-era, when it was also panic buying.”
He added, “It turns into a snowball. If I hear that the local grocery store is running out of toilet paper, what am I going to do? I’m going to rush to buy toilet paper. And then so is the next person.”
What impact is the strike having?
Gonzales said it’s true that the port strike will hit supply chains — but the effect for North American consumers would be on other sectors, not toilet paper.
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“There would be a lot of delays in the export of pork and meat from the U.S. to other countries in South America and Europe. In the area of imports, we will have delays in fresh fruit — banana, plantain, berries — coming from Central America and Latin America,” he said.
North said banana retailers in the United States and Canada would be feeling the heat from the strike.
“Bananas in particular are at risk as almost all bananas are imported, and half of those imports come through the affected ports. Once unloaded from the ship it takes approximately one to two weeks for a banana to start turning brown. We are in the third day of the strike. If the bananas sitting on those ships do make it to the grocery stores, they will be on sale and they will be used for banana bread,” he said.
He added that even those products that are being delivered into U.S. and Canadian markets could be subject to inflationary pressures.
“In anticipation of the strike, freight rates for West Coast ports have already started to rise, driving up the prices of incoming products. The inevitable shortage of goods will also drive up prices,” he said.
“The last thing the Bank of Canada wants to see now is a backup in inflation.”
He added that Canada’s auto manufacturing sector could also feel the pinch.
While much of the supply chain for toilet paper is domestic, Gonzales said the U.S. imports one major raw material from Brazil — eucalyptus pulp — which is used to make tissue paper softer.
If the strike continues for two or three weeks, Gonzales said users might notice the quality begin to dip, but toilet paper would still be available on U.S. and Canadian shelves.
“It’s just that maybe the tissue paper will not be that soft,” he said.
Gozales said he does not expect the strike to go on for that long. “The U.S. and the unions cannot afford to delay (the work stoppage) more than a couple of weeks.”
Canada saw its own work stoppages at the docks, with the port of Vancouver and the port of Montreal both seeing brief recent labour disputes.
However, both work disputes were resolved by Thursday.
Is there similar behaviour in Canada?
Michelle Wasylyshen, spokesperson for the Retail Council of Canada, told Global News, “We’re not aware of any immediate impacts at the present time, but it’s (the U.S. port strike) definitely something that our retailers are monitoring.”
Wasylyshen said they had not received any reports of toilet paper shortages or panic buying in Canada.
“The things that would be most impacted would be general merchandise items for the upcoming holiday shopping season. And from what I understand, most retailers already have much of their holiday merchandise.”
However, she said since many retailers like to call their inventory forward ahead of time, the impact of the U.S. strike could be compounded by the stoppage going on longer, with the 2025 spring apparel season being potentially affected.
No negotiations were scheduled between the International Longshoremen’s Association and employers, but the port owners, under pressure from the White House to hike their pay offer to land a deal, signaled on Wednesday they were open to new talks.
“I think we’re making progress,” Biden told reporters on Thursday, without providing details. “We’ll find out soon.”
At least 45 container vessels that have been unable to unload had anchored up outside the strike-hit East Coast and Gulf Coast ports by Wednesday, up from just three before the strike began on Sunday, according to Everstream Analytics.
The ILA launched the strike by 45,000 port workers from Maine to Texas, its first major work stoppage since 1977, on Tuesday after talks for a new six-year contract with the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) employer group broke down.
The ILA is seeking a big pay raise and commitments to halt port automation projects it fears will kill jobs. The USMX had offered a 50-per cent pay raise, but the ILA said that was insufficient to address its concerns.
“Reaching an agreement will require negotiating,” USMX said late on Wednesday.
“We cannot agree to preconditions to return to bargaining, but we remain committed to bargaining in good faith to address the ILA’s demands and USMX’s concerns,” it said.
Biden’s administration has sided with the union, heaping pressure on the port employers to raise their offer to secure a deal and citing the shipping industry’s bumper profits since the COVID-19 pandemic.
But it has repeatedly resisted calls from business trade groups and Republican lawmakers to use federal powers to halt the strike — a move that would undermine Democratic support among the unions ahead of the Nov. 5 presidential election.
— with files from Reuters
